Superintelligence in Robots · Part of The Humanoid Group

AI, Robots and Jobs

Talk of superintelligence often turns to one question: what happens to jobs? The evidence so far comes from studies of industrial robots and estimates of which jobs AI could touch. Here is what it shows, and what it does not.

By Arjun Rao · Updated October 2026

What robots did to US labour markets

The most cited study of robots and work is by economists Daron Acemoglu of MIT and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University, published in the Journal of Political Economy in 2020. Comparing local labour markets across the United States, they estimate that one more industrial robot per thousand workers reduces the employment-to-population ratio by 0.2 percentage points and wages by 0.42%. They find these negative effects robust across areas, and distinct from the effects of other kinds of capital and technology.

Exposure is not replacement

For AI more broadly, most evidence measures exposure: how many of a job's tasks AI could affect. The International Labour Organization's 2025 index finds that one in four workers worldwide is in an occupation with some exposure to generative AI, but only 3.3% of global employment falls in the highest category. Clerical work is the most exposed, and women are more exposed than men. The ILO concludes that because most jobs need human input, transformation is the most likely impact rather than wholesale replacement.

Who is most exposed

An International Monetary Fund analysis in 2024 found that almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, rising to about 60% of jobs in advanced economies, compared with 40% in emerging markets and 26% in low-income countries. In advanced economies, roughly half of exposed jobs may benefit as AI raises productivity, while for the rest AI could lower demand for labour, wages and hiring. In most of its scenarios, the IMF expects AI to worsen overall inequality, which is why policy responses feature prominently.

Reading the numbers for your organisation

These studies measure different things, so they should not be added together. Industrial robot studies describe physical machines in factories over decades. Exposure indexes describe tasks that software could affect, not jobs certain to disappear. For an organisation adopting robots, the useful questions are local: which tasks change, which skills people will need to supervise and maintain the machines, and how to involve staff early. Plan training alongside the purchase rather than after it.

Sources and further reading

Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets — Journal of Political Economy, Acemoglu and Restrepo (MIT DSpace).
The landmark study of how industrial robots affected US employment and wages, with its headline estimates.
Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure — International Labour Organization (ILO).
The ILO's 2025 index of which jobs are exposed to generative AI, by country income level and gender.
AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. — International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF's summary of its 2024 staff analysis finding almost 40% of global employment exposed to AI.

Common questions

Will robots take my job?

The evidence points more to change than wholesale replacement, though effects are uneven. Studies of US industrial robots found measurable losses in employment and wages where robots spread fastest.

Are office jobs more exposed to AI than factory jobs?

For generative AI, current estimates say yes: the ILO finds clerical occupations most exposed. Studies of industrial robots, by contrast, focus on factory and production work.

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